金融经济学研究

农村彩礼治理政策频繁制定与彩礼持续上涨的矛盾凸显了治理效能亟待改进，需结合时代背景重新审视农村彩礼上涨趋势的成因逻辑。立足数字普惠金融视角，构建婚姻市场要价与支付的双边分析框架，讨论并检验数字普惠金融对农村彩礼上涨趋势的影响。研究结果表明，数字普惠金融发展促进农村彩礼上涨，且覆盖广度、使用深度、数字化程度均有促进作用。在开通高铁、拥有孔庙、方言分化、商帮文化浓厚地区，其作用更强。数字普惠金融通过提升农村未婚男女同县婚嫁、女方婚前职业上升、彩礼转移及双方婚介渠道陌生化概率，促使彩礼上涨。由此驱动的上涨实质是行为决策约束受外界改变而引致的合理上涨。部分地方政府对于农村彩礼上涨的片面否定与上涨构成的思辨不足，致使依赖文化治理、盲目限定彩礼、推崇零彩礼等治理偏倚出现。应关注非合理上涨，并援助数字普惠金融等合理上涨因素下的弱势人群。

The contradiction between the frequent formulation of rural bride price governance policies and the persistent increase in bride price underscores the urgent need to enhance governance effectiveness, necessitating a reevaluation of the causes behind the rising trend of rural bride prices in the context of the current era.Anchored in the perspective of digital inclusive finance, this study constructed a bilateral analysis framework for asking bride prices and payments in the marriage market and examined the impact of digital inclusive finance on the increasing trend of rural bride prices.The findings reveal that the development of digital inclusive finance contributes to the rise in rural bride prices, and its breadth of coverage, depth of use, and degree of digitalization play facilitating roles.This effect is more pronounced in areas with high-speed rail access, Confucian temples, dialect diversity, and strong mercantile cultures.Digital inclusive finance promotes an increase in bride prices by enhancing the likelihood of rural unmarried men and women marrying within the same county, elevating the pre-marital occupational status of women, facilitating the transfer of bride prices, and increasing the probability of anonymity in matchmaking channels.The resultant rise is essentially a rational increase driven by external changes affecting behavioral decision constraints.The unilateral rejection by some local governments of the rise in rural bride prices and a lack of critical reflection on the components of this increase have led to governance biases, including reliance on cultural governance, arbitrary limitations on bride prices, and the promotion of zero bride price policies.Policymakers should focus on irrational increases while supporting vulnerable groups affected by rational increases driven by factors such as digital inclusive finance.