金融经济学研究

基于2012—2021年宏观经济数据，通过构建地方政府债务风险评估的KMV模型，针对仅考虑显性债务以及综合考虑隐性债务等不同情形，对地方债务违约风险展开测度评价。研究发现，全国不同地区的债务风险存在显著差异，西部和东北地区较为严重，东部和中部地区相对较轻；西部和东北地区的地方债务风险主要以显性债务为主，而不断攀升的隐性债务承担是造成东部和中部地区债务违约风险恶化的重要因素；从全域层面看，地方政府债务风险较为严峻，若完全考虑显性和隐性债务偿还，全国约有77.42%的地区将面临严重的债务违约风险。基于此，建议从中央和地方政府两大层级系统强化地方政府债务管理与风险防范，根据不同地区债务风险演化特征因地制宜，重视隐性债务风险防范与化解。

This study utilized macroeconomic data for the period 2012-2021 to construct a KMV model to assess local government debt default risk under two different scenarios: one that considered only explicit debts and another that incorporated both explicit and implicit debts.The findings revealed significant regional disparities in debt risk across China.The western and northeastern regions exhibited relatively severe debt risk, whereas the eastern and central regions faced comparatively moderate risks.Furthermore, explicit debt was the primary driver of debt risk in the western and northeastern regions, but surging implicit debt obligations have become a critical factor exacerbating debt default risk in the eastern and central regions.At the national level, local government debt risk was severe.If both explicit and implicit debts were fully accounted for, approximately 77.42% of all regions would be exposed to substantial default risk.Given these results, this study recommends that central and local governments reinforce the management and prevention of local government debt risks.Strategies should be tailored to the debt risk evolution characteristics of individual regions, and special attention should be paid to the prevention and resolution of implicit debt risks.