金融经济学研究

将人口年龄结构变动、金融稳定与地方财政可持续性嵌入三期世代交叠模型，演绎人口年龄结构变迁对地方财政可持续性的非线性影响，并从收入与支出渠道探索这一非线性影响的内在机制与金融稳定的调节效应。在此基础上，使用2010-2023年中国246个城市面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现，多个区域的地方财政已呈现“财政疲劳”现象，且人口年龄结构变动与地方财政可持续性之间存在显著非线性关联。其中，少儿抚养比呈U型影响，老年抚养比呈倒U型影响，这一结论经稳健性和内生性检验后依然成立。分组检验结果表明，上述非线性关系在财政支出分权、税收税源背离度与人才引进政策强度方面存在显著异质性。进一步地，少儿抚养比通过收入渠道的滞后性U型传导与支出渠道的即时性线性负担，对财政可持续性形成U型冲击；老年抚养比则通过收入渠道的即时性倒U型传导与支出渠道的滞后性负担累积，对财政可持续性形成倒U型冲击。此外，金融稳定在人口年龄结构变动影响地方财政可持续性的关系中发挥显著正向调节作用。基于此，需从人口年龄结构动态监测、政策组合精准适配、跨周期预算平滑机制与金融稳定功能强化四个维度协同发力，以实现人口年龄结构转变背景下地方财政的平稳健康运行。

This paper embeds population age structure change,financial stability and local fiscal sustainability into the three-period overlapping generation model,deduces the nonlinear influence of population age structure change on local fiscal sustainability,and explores the internal mechanism of this nonlinear influence and the moderating effect of financial stability from the income and expenditure channels.On this basis,the panel data of 246 cities in China from2010 to 2023 are used for empirical test.It is found that the local finance in many regions of China has shown the phenomenon of "financial fatigue," and there is a significant nonlinear correlation between the change of population age structure and the sustainability of local finance.Among them,the child dependency ratio has a U-shaped effect,and the elderly dependency ratio has an inverted U-shaped effect.This conclusion is still valid after robustness and endogeneity tests.The grouping test results show that the above nonlinear relationship has significant heterogeneity in fiscal expenditure decentralization,tax source deviation and talent introduction policy intensity.Further,the child dependency ratio has a U-shaped impact on fiscal sustainability through the lag U-shaped transmission of the income channel and the immediate linear burden of the expenditure channel;the old-age dependency ratio has an inverted Ushaped impact on fiscal sustainability through the immediate inverted U-shaped transmission of the income channel and the lagging burden accumulation of the expenditure channel.In addition,financial stability plays a significant positive regulatory role in the relationship between population age structure changes and local fiscal sustainability.Based on this,it is necessary to work together from the four dimensions of dynamic monitoring of population age structure,precise adaptation of policy mix,cross-cycle budget smoothing mechanism and financial stability function strengthening,so as to realize the stable and healthy operation of local finance under the background of population age structure transformation.