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发展第三支柱个人养老金成为积极应对人口老龄化国家战略的必然选择。采用Logit模型，研究个人养老金制度试点阶段“开户热、缴存凉”的问题。研究发现，居民金融素养水平越高，其养老金账户开通意愿越强烈，但其个人养老金缴存意愿受到账户支取限制的约束；资金账户优势与个人养老金账户的开通、缴存意愿均正相关。金融素养、资金账户优势与个人养老金账户开通、缴存意愿的相关性因居民受教育程度、主要消费支出类型、婚姻状况等情景不同而存在明显差异。机制分析发现，资金账户优势和劣势(流动性限制)共存带来的资金收益的额度，如果比金融素养水平带来的“缴存资金”在其他渠道投资收益预期更小，居民选择“开而不缴”。因此，不仅要通过发展经济和优化税制破解低收入群体“开而不缴”之谜，也要通过提高个人养老金账户资金收益率和优化支取情景破解高收入群体“开而不缴”之谜；短期内，商业银行要精准把握居民特点，让潜力居民尽快开户并缴存；长期内，要逐步提高居民金融素养，提前规划个人养老。
Abstract：Developing the third-pillar personal pension has become an inevitable choice for China's national strategic response to population aging. Using a Logit model, this study investigated the phenomenon of “high account opening but low contribution” during the pilot stage of the personal pension system.The findings revealed the following: residents with higher financial literacy exhibited a stronger willingness to open personal pension accounts, but their willingness to contribute to such accounts was constrained by account withdrawal restrictions; fund account advantages were positively correlated with both willingness to open and with contributing to personal pension accounts; and the correlation between financial literacy, fund account advantages, and willingness to open and contribute to personal pension accounts significantly varied with residents' education level, type of consumption expenditure, and marital status.The mechanism analysis revealed that if the net benefit from the coexistence of fund account advantages and disadvantages(liquidity constraints) was perceived to be lower than the expected returns from potential alternative investments of “contributed funds” facilitated by high financial literacy, residents tended to choose “opening but not contributing.” It is therefore necessary to solve the puzzle of “opening but not contributing” by developing the economy and optimizing the tax system for low-income groups, and by improving the return on personal pension account funds and optimizing withdrawal scenarios for high-income groups.In the short term, commercial banks should accurately identify resident characteristics and encourage potential clients to open accounts and contribute promptly.In the long term, residents should be encouraged to gradually enhance financial literacy and make personal pension planning beforehand.
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(1)本文修改过程中,养老相关的政策文件仍在持续发布,如2024年12月30日《中共中央国务院关于深化养老服务改革发展的意见》,首次提出加快健全覆盖城乡的县、乡、村三级养老服务网络;2025年3月2日国务院办公厅《关于做好金融“五篇大文章”的指导意见》(国办发[2025]8号)等。
(2)从个人投资者角度看,个人养老金第三支柱完整的路径包括:开户—缴存—投资—领取—消费,本文聚焦开户—缴存前两个阶段,一是因为没有“开户—缴存”,后续一切无从谈起;二是现阶段开户、缴存的人数占比不高,投资的占比更低,尚不具备实证研究的数据条件。
(3)EEE模式:个人养老金在缴费、投资和领取三个环节均免税(Exempting)。这种模式对政府税收有一定影响,然而对于中低收入群体,这种模式可以提供更大的税收优惠。目前中国采用EET模式,即在最后领取时征税(Taxing)。
(4)加权logit模型,通过对样本不均衡的控制变量(如本文中婚姻Marriage、工作类型Work、性别Gender)进行加权处理,以检验回归结果的稳健性。
(5)限于篇幅,组间系数差异检验未报告,留存备索。
基本信息:
中图分类号:F842.6;F832
引用信息:
[1]刘能华.个人养老金参与意愿何以曲高和寡——基于银行渠道调研数据的金融素养与资金账户优势的解释[J].金融经济学研究,2026,41(04):20-36.
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2026-05-11