金融经济学研究

为探索地方政府债务对绿色投资的挤入或挤出效应，基于地方融资平台债务数据与上市公司绿色投资数据，实证检验地方政府债务对绿色投资的影响。研究发现，地方政府债务对绿色投资具有显著的负向影响，即存在挤出效应。地方政府债务结构分解发现，非公开发行地方债显著抑制企业绿色投资，而公开发行的绿色城投债促进企业绿色投资，即存在挤入效应，其占比越高，绿色投资带动效应越显著。进一步分析发现，地方政府债务对企业源头预防投资产生了挤出效应，而对末端治理投资影响不显著。异质性分析表明，在财政分权程度更大、环境规制更低、财政透明度更低和金融发展水平更低的地区，地方政府债务对企业绿色投资的挤出效应更为显著。机制分析显示，地方政府债务通过加剧企业融资约束和促进企业脱实向虚，抑制绿色投资；金融监管对地方政府债务的绿色投资挤出效应具有调节作用。因此，建议严控地方政府债务规模，优化其债务结构，强化绿色属性，推动经济高质量发展。

This study employed data on local financing platform debt alongside green investment among listed companies to investigate the crowding-in or crowding-out effect of local government debt on green investment.The research entailed an empirical test of the impact of local government debt on green investment.The results showed that local government debt had a significant negative impact on green investment, indicating a crowding-out effect.A breakdown of the local government debt structure revealed that non-public issuance of local government bonds significantly inhibited corporate green investment, whereas public issuance of green urban investment bonds promoted it, thus demonstrating a crowding-in effect.Moreover, a higher proportion of these bonds amplified their positive effect on green investment.Further analysis indicated that local government debt exerted a crowding-out effect on corporate upstream preventive investments but did not significantly impact downstream governance investments.Heterogeneity tests revealed that the crowding-out effect of local government debt on corporate green investment was more pronounced in regions with higher levels of fiscal decentralization, lower levels of environmental regulation and financial development, and weaker fiscal transparency.Mechanism analysis suggested that local government debt suppressed green investment by intensifying the financing constraints affecting companies and encouraging a shift away from real economic activities.Additionally, financial regulation moderated the crowding-out effect of local government debt on green investment.Therefore, this study recommends strictly controlling the scale of local government debt, optimizing its structure, strengthening its green attributes, and advancing high-quality economic development.