金融经济学研究

基于2011—2023年地级市数据，实证分析了气候变化对粮食安全保障的影响及农业保险的调节效应。研究发现，温和的气候变化令粮食安全得以重视与保障，但剧烈的气候变化对粮食安全构成威胁与挑战，即二者之间存在显著的倒U型关系。机制分析表明，在气候变化初期，资源利用效率提升的正向效应居于主导，而当气候变化强度超过临界阈值后，系统脆弱性累积与释放的负向效应反占上风，由此可捕捉到在秦岭淮河以南、耕地资源较为丰富、农业技术基础较为坚实的地区，气候变化与粮食安全保障的倒U型关系相对更为明显。此外，农业保险对这一倒U型关系起到差异化的调节作用，即在气候变化程度较轻时，农业保险能在其中有效发挥风险缓冲功能；但随着气候变化加剧，相应的调节效果逐渐弱化。因此，保障粮食安全需以技术赋能生产与资源优化配置为抓手，着力降低农业生产系统的脆弱性，同时强化农业保险保障，弥补极端气候下的潜在短板。

Based on prefecture-level city data from 2011 to 2023,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of climate change on food security and the moderating effect of agricultural insurance.The findings reveal a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between climate change and food security:moderate climate change can enhance grain output,but beyond a certain threshold,its negative impact on food security becomes pronounced.Mechanism analysis indicates that in the early stage of climate change,food security is primarily driven by improvements in resource utilization efficiency;however,when the intensity of climate change exceeds the threshold,the accumulation and release of systemic vulnerability gradually offset the positive effects with negative shocks,thereby forming an inverted U-shaped pattern of first rising and then falling.Furthermore,agricultural insurance moderates this inverted U-shaped relationship:when climate change is relatively mild,agricultural insurance effectively serves as a risk buffer;but as climate change intensifies,its moderating effect gradually weakens.Therefore,ensuring food security requires fully leveraging the resource utilization efficiency of planting potential in mid-to-high latitude regions and technological innovation,while striving to reduce the systemic vulnerability of agricultural production systems.Additionally,it is necessary to accelerate the establishment of catastrophe risk diversification mechanisms and explore multi-peril comprehensive insurance to address the coverage gaps of agricultural insurance under extreme climate events.